Definition

The Guest-mix driver of Detection Lag. The Guest base shifts under the operator’s read — regulars churn out, new Guests churn in — while totals stay flat enough to look stable. Loyalty bleeds while covers hold, and by the time the totals actually move, the regular base is already gone.

Explanation

The tell isn’t in the numbers — cover counts hold steady the whole time this driver is running. It’s in the room itself: fewer faces the operator recognizes, more first-timers, average check drifting one direction with no menu change behind it. The numbers say nothing changed. The room says everything did.

The fix is tracking regular-Guest recognition rate as its own daily metric, separate from covers. The operator, or a named cast member, names every recognized Guest by sight at entry. A drop in recognition rate is the leading indicator of the churn already underway. Covers are the lagging indicator — by the time they move, the base that was churning has already finished leaving.